Impact on the Economy:
The Union Budget 2010-11 presented on Friday has several important implications for the
economy as well as equity and debt markets for the year ahead. Broadly speaking, the
government aims to improve its finances by reducing subsidies and normalizing indirect taxes
even as it has reduced income taxes on individuals. Over the last couple of years, because of
the macro-economic crisis and rise in subsidies due to high commodity prices, the
government’s finances weakened considerably and the government has announced a multiyear
road map to improve its finances. Specifically this budget aims to reduce the gap between
the government’s overall revenue and expenditure, called fiscal deficit, from 6.7% in FY2010 to
an estimated 5.5% in FY2011.
The most important driver of improving long-term finances, and indeed generating surpluses
necessary for investment, is growth in economic activity. The budget has either maintained the
momentum, or increased it, as far as demand drivers of the economy are concerned with more
allocations to various development and infrastructure segments. We believe that reduction in
income taxes on individuals, will put more money into the hands of consumers who in turn will
provide a boost to private sector demand. This will also partly neutralize the impact of the rise
in prices that will happen in various segments, such as petrol and diesel prices, on account of
reduction in subsidies. GDP which is on an improving trend overall, notwithstanding the impact
of weak monsoon, will maintain the momentum in FY2011 and will show a higher GDP growth
rate than FY2010. As such the budget for the overall economy is growth enabling even though it
is likely to be mildly inflationary.
Impact on Equity Markets:
What is good for economy is usually good for equity markets. We believe the budget will
provide an additional boost to the already strong domestic demand, particularly in the
consumption-oriented segments. From corporate revenue and earnings perspective, the
budget has positives for consumer sectors such as Auto, negatives for cement and realty
sectors and is neutral for banking sector. Also this budget is likely to enable a positive
environment for infrastructure and capital goods sectors, given the increased outlays and
additional tax break on infrastructure bonds. Overall the budget does not alter our view that
FY2011 will be a year of economic revival, and also a year of strong growth in corporate
earnings which is a significant improvement from the flattish trend observed over last two
years.
While growth in earnings will remain robust, however the market valuation multiple is likely to
remain capped, closer to the long-term trend line levels of 14-15 times one-year forward
earnings, given the government’s planned disinvestment target of Rs 40,000 Cr for next year.
We believe that there is a case for range bound markets in the short-term driven by factors like
current valuations and likely supply of paper on account of fresh issuances in the backdrop of
resurgent economic growth and capital flows.
Impact on Fixed Income markets:
The government has taken the first step towards fiscal consolidation by reducing the deficit to
more sustainable levels in the Union budget for FY2011. The government announced a fiscal
deficit target of 5.5% of GDP for FY2011 compared to a deficit of 6.7% of GDP registered in
FY2010. The government aims to achieve this through:
- Improvement in tax to GDP ratio by increasing excise duty rates, Minimum Alternative Tax paid by corporates and increasing the scope of service tax
- Less than expected increase in overall expenditure
- Higher receipts through disinvestment and auction of 3G telecom licenses
As a result the net market borrowing program for the FY 2010-11 has been reduced to Rs.
345,010 cr compared to Rs. 398,411 cr for the FY 2009-10. The commitment by government to
further reduce its fiscal deficit to 4.1% of GDP by in FY 2012-13 is likely to lead to lower interest
rates in medium term.
However there may be some pressure on government security yields in the near term as the
government hits the market with next year’s borrowing program in an environment
characterized by rising inflation, possible interest rate hikes by RBI and possibly no support
from RBI in the form of Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases of government securities. As
a result yields may gradually drift higher from current levels and peak out some time in the first
half of next fiscal.
Overall this as an economy friendly budget in the medium to long term due to positive intent
shown by the government in the areas of social spending, fiscal consolidation and tax reforms.
While the view on equity markets is one of range-bound markets or on debt markets is one of
pressure on yields in the near term, no long-term savings or investment decision should be
taken based on short term outlook of the markets. India remains one of the fastest growing
economies in the world, least impacted by global crisis, and therefore Indian equity and fixed income securities remain an attractive investment opportunity in the long-term savings
portfolio.
